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The State of the Real Estate Market in Scottsdale and the Greater Phoenix Metro Area
Posted by: | CommentsI’m getting all sorts of requests for information about the ever changing real estate market in Scottsdale and the Greater Phoenix Metro Area.
It is easy to find statistics and opinions everywhere. In general, here are the issues and forecasts as presented by some reliable economists (see below). Although the real estate market in Scottsdale and Phoenix is sluggish, the long term forecast for Phoenix area is good. In the meantime, the recovery is still at bay, for possibly 3 to 5 years.
Today’s Local Market Facts
- Existing inventory of resale homes about 25,000 too many
- Excess builders inventory
- Foreclosures growing
- Median sales price for single family homes (Phoenix Metro) have declined 7.8% since the 4th quarter of 2006
- Lenders have much stricter requirements
- Many would be buyers need to sell a home first
- Economy is still stable
- Economic Stimulus Package will make home loans more affordable
Predictions for 2008
- Prices will decline by another 10 – 15% ( this varies throughout the valley)
- More homes will sell towards the end of 2008
- Home building will decline
Indicators of a Recovery
- Inventory falls below a six month supply
- Most homes in foreclosure are resold
- Days on the market falls below 180 days
- Prices begin to climb
What Should You Do Now?
In a commentary dated February 14, 2008, NAR economist, Lawrence Yun references Warren Buffet’s investment philosophy that states “when everyone is greedy, be scared and when everyone is scared, be brave”. Yun goes on to say: “Now, I am not an investment counselor and I do not encourage people to buy simply based on this logic. Rather, if people have the financial capacity and are looking for a home for the long haul, the fear factor should be put aside. Current situations in many local markets present a golden opportunity in attaining the American Dream with historically low interest rates.” Personally, I think there is a great amount of truth in what he says. I believe that the increased ceiling for Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae backed loans is good news for current homebuyers and that there are some great homes to buy in this market.
These observations are based on the following reliable economists comments.
- Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist for NAR (National Association of Realtors) is generally optimistic saying that “we will skirt a recession” due to job gains and housing affordability. Mr. Yun writes commentaries several times a week that you can check out here
- Dr. Jay Butler, a highly respected economist with Realty Studies at ASU gives very sound advice backed by local numbers.
- Elliot Pollack, a Phoenix economist, spoke on the Phoenix Real Estate market at the Urban land Institute conference in January 2008.
You Tube Diversion
Posted by: | CommentsI know that there are lots of real estate videos on You Tube but it’s Saturday morning and time for a diversion.
I have a friend who always sends me the funniest photos and videos. II don’t have time to read them as I can get as many as 8 per week so I set up a rule and they get filed automatically into my “Funny” folder. This morning is one of those mornings I needed a diversion from all things real estate so into the Funny folder I went and have been laughing ever since.
Here are the top two of the day: Enjoy.
Will Increased Loan Limits Unstick the Market?
Posted by: | CommentsTemporary Conventional Loan Limit Increase for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac
HR 5140, the Economic Stimulus Act of 2008, has passed through the House and the Senate and is awaiting the President’s approval. This bill could have some very positive effects for home buyers and sellers.
What does this mean to the home buyer? Loans that conform to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac loan limits have significantly better interest rates. The increased loan limit could definitely inspire more home buyers to take action as it will make home ownership in the higher price ranges more affordable. Let’s hope it works.
I’ve heard the phrase "getting the market unstuck" and that seems appropriate. Policy makers believe that the increase in the conforming loan limit will open up the market to more homebuyers and I certainly hope they are right as the average home price in Scottsdale is significantly higher than the current limit of $417,000. (See table below for current home prices in Scottsdale)
HR 5140 itself doesn’t determine the new limits however it does state that these limits are temporary. The window of opportunity will end December 31, 2008 according to this bill. I believe the new limits will be set by the Secretary of Housing and Urban Development and I have heard that the limits will be as high as $635,000 to $730,000.
This is a huge increase by normal standards. The annual increases are historically minimal. In 2002, the limit was $300,700, and the increases through 2005 were between $10,000 and $25,000 annually. The last increase in 2006 of $57,350 brings us to the current limit of $417,000. An increased limit of $730,000 is $313,000 or 75% higher than the current limit.
Prices of Scottsdale Single Family Homes for Sale
| Home Price Range | # Active Listings |
| $175,000 – $500,000 | 893 |
| $500,000 – $1,000,000 | 1734 |
| $1,000,000 – $5,000,000 | 1537 |
| $5,000,000 – $16,000,000 | 65 |
Superbowl Sunday in Scottsdale
Posted by: | CommentsJust getting ready to go to a Super Bowl party (like probably 80% of the adults in the U.S.) but decided to first get this new blog up and active. I’ve had a blog with Myst for the last year but had not been utilizing it fully so I cancelled it. This is simple so we’ll see how it goes.
One year, I actually did an Open House on Superbowl Sunday. Wow! Was that a boring afternoon. So today, I join the rest of the population for the great American tradition. Go Patriots! Anyone who has an unbeatable season deserves to win.
Scottsdale Homeowners Benefit from Emergency Lockbox
Posted by: | CommentsTechnorati Tags: Scottsdale Homeowner,Lockbox for Seniors,Scottsdale Area Association of Realtors,Disabled Residents of Scottsdale,emergency lockbox
Do you have a parent or a friend who could benefit from this unique program for Scottsdale homeowners?The Lockbox for Seniors Program was created by the Housing Opportunities Committee at the Scottsdale Area Association of REALTORS and is designed to give the Scottsdale Police Department and Scottsdale Fire Department access to the homes of Seniors or Disabled Residents of Scottsdale and Fountain Hills in case of emergency. Computers in police and fire vehicles will display information about the location of the lockbox and the code so that emergency responders can use a key to enter the premises instead of breaking down the door. The program also allows Police to perform wellness checks upon proper authorization.
The lockbox is provided at a minimal charge of $25 and is installed by a Scottsdale Police Officer. During the months of May and June Unique Scottsdale Homes is going to sponsor 10 lockboxes. This is just one way we can give back to this wonderful community of Scottsdale. Just contact Melissa O’Connell to make arrangements for you, your friend or parent to get a lockbox installed in your Scottsdale or Fountain Hills home.
First Quarter 2007 Ranks Arizona at 25 with a annual 5.22% appreciation
Posted by: | CommentsI just read the latest statistical report from OFHEO (Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight) and it’s always nice to read good news about Arizona real estate. Now, granted, the news isn’t as good as it is for Utah, Idaho or Washington – but we had our day. If you have held property for the last five years, you experienced 93.76% appreciation and if you are an oldtimer (since 1980), then you have seen 332.35% increase. Let’s keep things in perspective – not bad! Arizona currently ranks as number 25 with a .13 % appreciation for the first quarter of 2007 and an annual appreciation (2nd Q 2006 - 1st Q 2007) of 5.22%.
The housing market is never static in the United States and this report just shows how varied it can be. Seven states show double digit appreciation while seven other states had less than 2% appreciation and even some depreciation.
First all the good news:
- Nationally, home prices grew faster over the past year than did prices of non-housing goods and services reflected in the Consumer Price Index. House prices rose 4.3 percent, while prices of other goods and services, excluding shelter, rose 1.6 percent.
- The states with the greatest rates of appreciation between the first quarter of 2006 and the first quarter of 2007 were: Utah (17.0%), Idaho (12.3%), Montana (11.7%), Wyoming (11.7%), and Washington (11.6%).
- The Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) with the greatest rates of appreciation between the first quarter of 2006 and the first quarter of 2007 were: Wenatchee, Washington (25.6%), Provo-Orem, Utah (19.7%), and Salt Lake City, Utah (19.1%).
- Of the 20 cities with the greatest four-quarter appreciation, five are in Washington state.
- Utah’s three largest metropolitan areas (Salt Lake City, Provo-Orem, and Ogden-Clearfield) were among the five fastest appreciating cities in the U.S.
Now – the bad news:
- The states with the lowest rates of appreciation for the same period were: Michigan (-0.7%), Massachusetts (-0.6%), Nevada (0.6%), Ohio (0.8%), and New Hampshire (1.1%).
- The MSAs with the lowest rates of appreciation for
the same period were: Punta Gorda, Florida (-4.6%), Sacramento-Arden-Arcade-Roseville, California (-4.4%), and Modesto, California (-4.4%).
One sure thing is that for most homeowners in the United States, the historic trend of housing, just like the stock market, goes up.
For more details about the OFHEO report, click here. For maps and the full ranking of U.S. cities, and states, click here.
First Quarter 2007 Ranks Arizona Appreciation #25
Posted by: | CommentsFirst Quarter 2007 Ranks Arizona at 25 with a annual 5.22% appreciation
I just read the latest statistical report from OFHEO (Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight) and it’s always nice to read good news about Arizona real estate.
Now, granted, the news isn’t as good as it is for Utah, Idaho or Washington – but we had our day. If you have held property for the last five years, you experienced 93.76% appreciation and if you are an old timer (since 1980), then you have seen 332.35% increase. Let’s keep things in perspective – not bad! Arizona currently ranks as number 25 with a .13 % appreciation for the first quarter of 2007 and an annual appreciation (2nd Q 2006 – 1st Q 2007) of 5.22%.
The housing market is never static in the United States and this report just shows how varied it can be. Seven states show double digit appreciation while seven other states had less than 2% appreciation and even some depreciation.
First all the good news:
- Nationally, home prices grew faster over the past year than did prices of non-housing goods and services reflected in the Consumer Price Index. House prices rose 4.3 percent, while prices of other goods and services, excluding shelter, rose 1.6 percent.
- The states with the greatest rates of appreciation between the first quarter of 2006 and the first quarter of 2007 were: Utah (17.0%), Idaho (12.3%), Montana (11.7%), Wyoming (11.7%), and Washington (11.6%).
- The Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) with the greatest rates of appreciation between the first quarter of 2006 and the first quarter of 2007 were: Wenatchee, Washington (25.6%), Provo-Orem, Utah (19.7%), and Salt Lake City, Utah (19.1%).
- Of the 20 cities with the greatest four-quarter appreciation, five are in Washington state.
Now – the bad news:
- The states with the lowest rates of appreciation for the same period were: Michigan (-0.7%), Massachusetts (-0.6%), Nevada (0.6%), Ohio (0.8%), and New Hampshire (1.1%).
- The MSAs with the lowest rates of appreciation for the same period were: Punta Gorda, Florida (-4.6%), Sacramento-Arden-Arcade-Roseville, California (-4.4%), and Modesto, California (-4.4%).
One sure thing is that for most homeowners in the United States, the historic trend of housing, just like the stock market, goes up.
For more details about the OFHEO report, click here. For maps and the full ranking of U.S. cities, and states, click here.
Scottsdale Projects Win Architectural Awards at The Golden Nugget
Posted by: | CommentsArizona and Scottsdale took numerous awards at the recent Golden Nugget Awards
The Golden Nugget Awards, sponsored by PCBC (Pacific Coast Builders Conference) were awarded in San Francisco recently. Of more than 500 projects, Scottsdale received quite a few. In fact, in the 44 year history of the award program, Arizona developers and architects had their best year ever. The Judges’ Award of Excellence was given to the City of Scottsdale for the beautiful public works project – the Chaparral Water Treatment Facility located at the southeast corner of Hayden Rd and McDonald. You might not have known it was a water treatment plant, but if you are a resident or frequent visitor of Scottsdale, you probably drove by it during it’s lengthy construction.
The Casitas at Silverleaf won a Gold Nugget Grand Prize for Detached Residential Project of the Year. Developer: DMB Associates, Inc. Architect: CSE & Associates, BBG Architects. Silverleaf is a exclusive luxury community located in DC Ranch, Scottsdale.
The following commercial buildings and homes won Golden Nugget Awards of Merit:
- A private residence at Silverleaf, Scottsdale – Custom Home over 10,000 square feet
- Casitas at Silverleaf, Scottsdale – Single Family Detached Home between 3601-4000 square feet and Single Family Detached Home between 4001 -4500 square feet
- The Clubhouse at The Golf Club Scottsdale
- Trader Vic’s, Scottsdale – Specialty Project
- Naiff/Cohen Residence, Scottsdale – Custom Home under 5000 sq ft
- DLB Residence – Custom under 5000 square feet
11 Acres of Trust Land Will be Auctioned This Week
Posted by: | CommentsOnline Listing Presentation A Valuable Tool For Out of State Homeowners
Posted by: | CommentsGoToMeeting.com is a Great Tool for Online Real Estate Listing Presentations
Several times in the last few years, I have dealt with homeowners who live out of state but need to sell their Scottsdale homes. It has been frustrating for both the client and me. I send email documents and then we talk on the phone. I’m looking at photos and statistics trying to explain something and make a point, but we find out we just are not looking at the same page. Those days of frustration are over.
Welcome to the cutting edge of technology in the real estate industry. I have my first listing appointment tomorrow using online meeting technology from www.GotoMeeting.com.
How does it work? I have done all my homework: previewed the listings that the home will be in competition with, reviewed the market trends and statistics for that neighborhood, prepared a market analysis and the listing agreement and made a document of our strategy to sell the home. I emailed my client an invitation to “join the meeting” at 10:30 on Wednesday with an explanation of how it works. Her email invitation has a web link and an access code. Since she is new to this technology, she will need to spend a few minutes downloading the viewer. Then once she has entered the access code, she will essentially be looking at my computer screen. As soon as I call her on the telephone, we will have freedom to not only discuss, but view all my detailed information and charts.
There is no doubt that the homeowner has to put a lot of trust in his real estate advisor when he is out of state. I always try to put myself in the homeowner’s situation and that is how I came up with the online meeting idea. Short of being in the same room together, I can’t think of a better solution to bridge the distance.